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Prediction for CME (2021-10-09T07:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-10-09T07:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17922/-1
CME Note: The CME is a full asymmetrical halo in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3. The associated eruption followed the M1.6 class flare from AR 2882 and was characterized by significant dimming, an EUV wave and post-eruptive arcades seen starting after 2021-10-09T06:33Z mostly to the West from AR 2882 in SDO AIA 193, 304, 171 and in EUVI A 195 starting at 2021-10-09T06:33Z. The CME arrival (a clear shock) is characterized by a sudden simultaneous jump of magnetic field (Bz to almost -14 nT), solar wind speed to 450 km/s from 350 km/s and ion density to above 25 cm^-3. Bz was intermittently in the negative for a few hours and B total reached the maximum of 16 nT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-10-12T01:46Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-10-11T19:22Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-10-09 10:33
. Time at C2: 2021-10-09 07:09
. Radial speed: 983.0 km/s
. Half angle: 45 deg
. Eruption location: N06W09
 Inferences:
   .  Associated flare: M1.6 (N17E09). Peak at 2021-10-09 06:19
 Predictions for Earth:
   . In-situ shock speed: 648.95 km/s
   . Shock arrival time: 2021-10-11 19:22 (i.e. predicted transit time: 60.22 hours)

Kp prediction: [4.0  5.0]

Lead Time: 57.60 hour(s)
Difference: 6.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2021-10-09T16:10Z

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